How We Calculate Your Revenue Gap
Every number in our simulator is sourced, documented, and deliberately conservative. Here’s exactly how we built it, and why you can trust the results.
01What the simulator measures
The Revenue Gap Simulator estimates the annual financial impact of deploying Samareo Shopping Guide on your e-commerce store. It computes two value drivers:
02Your inputs
The simulator uses four inputs. Two are entered by you, two are pre-filled from industry benchmarks and can be customized:
| Input | Range | Default | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly visitors | 1,000 – 2,000,000 | Industry-specific | You |
| Average order value | €10 – €2,000 | Industry-specific | You |
| Conversion rate | 0.3% – 8.0% | Benchmark | Pre-filled |
| Return rate | 1.0% – 40.0% | Benchmark | Pre-filled |
03The formulas
Current state: without Samareo
Current monthly revenue = Current monthly sales × AOV
Current annual revenue = Current monthly revenue × 12
Current annual returns = Current monthly sales × 12 × (RR / 100) × AOV
Projected state: with Samareo Shopping Guide
Guided monthly sales = Monthly visitors × (Guided CR / 100)
Guided monthly revenue = Guided monthly sales × AOV
Impact calculations
Return savings = Current annual returns × (Return Reduction% / 100)
Total annual impact = Annual revenue gain + Return savings
Worked example: Electronics & Appliances
| Step | Formula | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly visitors | input | 50,000 |
| Average order value | input | €200 |
| Conversion rate | benchmark | 1.8% |
| Return rate | benchmark | 9.0% |
| Guided Lift | benchmark | +35% |
| Return Reduction | benchmark | 25% |
| Current monthly sales | 50,000 × 0.018 | 900 orders |
| Current monthly revenue | 900 × €200 | €180,000 |
| Current annual revenue | €180,000 × 12 | €2,160,000 |
| Guided CR | 1.8% × 1.35 | 2.43% |
| Guided monthly sales | 50,000 × 0.0243 | 1,215 orders |
| Annual revenue gain | (€243K − €180K) × 12 | €756,000 /year |
| Current annual returns | 900 × 12 × 0.09 × €200 | €194,400 |
| Return savings | €194,400 × 0.25 | €48,600 /year |
| Total annual impact | €756,000 + €48,600 | €804,600 /year |
04Industry benchmarks
Each industry has its own conversion rate, return rate, guided lift, and return reduction values. All are set at the conservative end of documented ranges.
| Industry | CR | Return | Guided Lift | Return Reduction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electronics & Appliances | 1.8% | 9.0% | +35% | −25% |
| Home & Garden | 1.8% | 14.0% | +30% | −22% |
| Fashion & Apparel | 2.2% | 26.0% | +28% | −30% |
| Sports & Outdoors | 1.8% | 12.0% | +32% | −22% |
| Beauty & Health | 2.5% | 7.0% | +25% | −18% |
| Automotive Parts | 1.4% | 12.0% | +38% | −30% |
| Toys & Games | 2.2% | 10.0% | +30% | −20% |
| DIY & Hardware | 1.5% | 9.0% | +35% | −25% |
| Lingerie & Intimate Wellness | 2.6% | 22.0% | +38% | −28% |
| Other (cross-industry) | 1.9% | 12.0% | +28% | −22% |
05Why +25% to +38% conversion lift is conservative
Our guided lift values represent the relative increase in conversion rate when visitors use a Shopping Guide. Here’s what the research says, and why we use the bottom of the range:
| Source | Finding |
|---|---|
| Forrester & Gartner | Product recommendations: up to +150% conversion |
| McKinsey | Personalization: +10-15% revenue, up to +25% |
| Shopify | Recommendations grow conversions up to +35% |
| Amazon | 35% of total revenue ($150B) from recommendations |
| Preezie (case study) | Guided conversion: +246% CR increase |
| Salesforce | Recommendation clickers: 4.5× more likely to buy |
Our approach: Documented lifts range from +10% (McKinsey) to +246% (Preezie case study). We use +25% to +38%, consistently at or below the floor of published research. The simulator shows the minimum, not the maximum.
06Why −18% to −30% return reduction is conservative
When customers find the right product, they keep it. Returns overwhelmingly stem from product mismatch, not defects:
| Source | Finding |
|---|---|
| McKinsey | 70% of online apparel returns from poor fit |
| CoreSight Research | Return reasons: 53% size/fit, 16% color, 10% damage |
| Rocket Returns (2025) | AI fit tools: −27% size-related returns |
| Rocket Returns (2025) | Virtual try-on: −34% fit-related returns |
| Rocket Returns (2025) | Sizing guides + reviews: −31% returns |
| Rocket Returns (case study) | Major retailer: 28.7% → 18.9% = −34% reduction |
Our approach: Documented return reductions range from −27% to −34%. We use −18% to −30%. Beauty gets the lowest reduction (−18%) because its returns are already low. Fashion and Automotive get the highest (−30%) because fit and compatibility mismatches, which guided selling directly solves, drive the majority of returns in those categories.
07What we deliberately exclude
The simulator shows the floor, not the ceiling. These documented benefits are real but not included in the calculation:
08Sources
Conversion rate benchmarks
- Statista – Online shopping conversion rate by industry, Q3 2024 (Salesforce Research) – statista.com
- IRP Commerce – All-industry average e-commerce CR 1.65% (2024) – cited in amasty.com
- SpeedCommerce – 2025 eCommerce Benchmarks by Industry – speedcommerce.com
- Smart Insights – E-commerce conversion rate benchmarks 2025 – smartinsights.com
- Blend Commerce – Shopify conversion rate benchmarks 2025–2026 – blendcommerce.com
- weDevs – eCommerce Conversion Rate Statistics 2026 – wedevs.com
Return rate benchmarks
- National Retail Federation (NRF) – 2024 Consumer Returns: 16.9% overall, ~20.4% e-commerce – nrf.com
- Statista – Most returned product categories – statista.com
- Opensend – Return rates by category (electronics 8–10%, home 15–20%) – opensend.com
- Rocket Returns – 2025 Complete Industry Analysis – rocketreturns.io
- Synctrack – 2025 Return Data by Category & Country – synctrack.io
- Upcounting – Average eCommerce Return Rate 2025 – upcounting.com
Guided selling & conversion lift
- Forrester & Gartner – Product recommendations: up to +150% CR – cited in threekit.com
- McKinsey – Personalization: +10-15% revenue, up to +25% – cited in threekit.com
- Shopify – Recommendations grow conversions up to +35% – cloudways.com
- Preezie – Guided conversion case studies (+246% CR) – preezie.com
- Salesforce – Recommendation clickers: 4.5× more likely to purchase – barilliance.com
- Envive – 52 Conversion Lift Statistics 2026 – envive.ai
Return reduction from guided selling
- McKinsey – 70% of apparel returns from poor fit – cited in threekit.com
- CoreSight Research – Return reasons: 53% size/fit – cited in trackingmore.com
- Rocket Returns – AI fit tools −27%, virtual try-on −34%, sizing guides −31% – rocketreturns.io
Market context
- Forrester – Commerce Search & Product Discovery Wave Q3 2023 – forrester.com
- Forrester – Agentic Commerce & Guided Selling (2025) – forrester.com
- Baymard Institute – Cart abandonment rate 70.19% – cited in multiple sources above
09Disclaimer
All benchmarks are industry averages. Individual store performance varies based on catalog depth, UX quality, traffic quality, and implementation. The simulator assumes the guided lift applies to all site visitors as a blended impact. Return savings reflect merchandise value only, not logistics costs. Results are projections based on published third-party research, not guarantees.